Gator Knowledge

Saturday, November 18, 2006

Catamount power

What is the point of that? Make no mistake that game was all about money. We get our $2 million for having a home game, Western Carolina gets $425,000 but I feel bad for their players, they have to go out there and get their asses kicked for the school to cash in. They looked dejected long before the game was over – I hope WCU gives them a nice party for doing that to them.

Anyway I naturally had great seats for that meaningless game. It was a good crowd, but very lowkey. I barely screamed and we weren’t really even doing high-fives when we scored. At least it was a nice day.

I’m not going to do full analysis of this game, I just don’t feel like it – the Orange-Blue game was more competitive. I’ll just hit the highlights.

Player of the game: Jeremy Foley. Unless playing a I-AA dog kills our strength of schedule. Ironic given how our schedule looked at the start of the season isn’t it?

Play of the game: DeShawn Wynn (RB-21) hurdling some guy while running for our first touchdown. It is the only memorable play I saw.

QB: The future may be bright, but it will be slow in getting here. I was in the endzone and from behind the line it was clear that Tebow (15) is not yet proficient at reading defenses. Most of the time he either just making a fake and turning and firing to a spot, only being asked to read half the field (often on a roll out), or (worst of all) is just staring down one guy. He has all the physical skills, but needs to be coached up during the offseason.

RB: That Mon Williams (27) guy looks pretty good – I know he was running against a tired I-AA team, but he is a true freshman.

WR: Who is this Tim Higgins (37) guy? Our answer to Rudy (45?) I gathered. Everyone was awfully pumped for a guy I had never heard of, but then I’m always out of the loop.

DL: We had one measly sack, and little to no pressure all game. I know they were not passing much (their QB was 5 for 12) and going quick when they did, but that alarmed me. As did the fact we got no turnovers – which I might as well mention here. Jarvis Moss (94) better keep away from the doobies as evidently with Marcus Thomas gone he is the new glue to our pass rush.

LB: Brandon Spikes (51) started for Brandon Siler (40), but my guy didn’t do much.

ST: Amazingly we still managed to get a PAT blocked in this dog game. And we had several penalties on returns (and in general – oddly in this game everyone could keep track of all the stats in this game. Big Red and I knew how many completions and first downs WCU had, another guy knew how many penalties we had committed).
GRADE: F

Football 101: We a quarterback “reads the defense” he looks at how the defensive backs (and linebackers) are playing (both before and after the start of the play) and figures out what type of coverage (how they are defending the pass – zone (and what type) or man to man) the defense is running. With that information he thinks about what routes his receivers are running and which one is most likely to be open (not covered) for a catch. Football 102: this is called going through “reads.” On every passing play the offense calls before the snap there is one receiver the play is supposed to go to, but other receivers (“secondary receivers” on the play) also run routes so if the primary guy is covered the quarterback goes through his “progression” to his second read (the receiver the ball is supposed to go to if the primary guy is covered), third read, and so on until he throws it. Reading the defense is the most important thing for an NFL quarterback (college QBs can get away with not being able to, see Vick, Michael). There are some all-pro quarterbacks with average physical skills who succeed because they are smart players. Conversely quarterbacks who can’t read defenses usually end up playing for the Oakland Raiders.

Bottom Line. Well Michigan kept it very close so they may still end up playing for the national championship (although I’m never seen a “great” run defense give up two killer runs that way). If not we are still behind USC (although they – and Rutgers – are losing as I write this) and Notre Dame might pass us too. With so many teams out there our chances of getting there are still slim, and we’d probably get smushed by OSU (congrats to Gerrit), but I’d still like that shot (again “any given Sunday”).

The Future: Before the game they introduced our seniors for their last home game. Here is a list of starters we are losing.

QB Chris Leak, RB DeShawn Wynn, WR Dallas Baker, WR Jemalle Cornelius, C Steve Rissler (eh), DT Joe Cohen, DT/DE Ray McDonald, LB Earl Everett, LB Brian Crum (good), CB Reggie Lewis.

Other valuable players graduating include

FB Billy Latsko, WR Kenneth Tookes (good procession guy even if we rarely use him), DT Steve Harris, CB Tremaine McCollum (our nickelback), K Chris Hetland (ha ha), P Eric Wilbur.

That’s a bunch of talent: 5 offensive starters (6 if you count Latsko), 5 on defense (6, including 3 linemen, if you count Thomas). And that doesn’t count juniors who could potentially go pro. I bet Brandon Siler and Reggie Nelson (remember, he played two years in JUCO too) both go for the money. Caldwell and Moss are probably seen as damaged goods and won’t go, but people have been know to make stupid decisions before (there is always someone who thinks way too much of themselves – my prediction for this year is Ryan Smith).

So how will next year’s team look? Tebow will be handing off to Moore or Williams – our fullback will be Eric Rutledge, who doesn’t look bad. Harvin, Caldwell and Fayson or Ingram will be catching his passes – that’s pretty strong. Four guys from the OL will be back and with a year playing together hopefully they will hopefully be better – best bet for the new starter is Mo Hurt, a true freshman who was frequently hurt. That doesn’t look so bad, most of these guys are Meyer’s signs too, so maybe his offense will run smoother, but coach needs to be more consistent and stop loving those damn trick plays so much. Especially since we won’t be able to rely on our defense. Moss and Harvey are back, but they have both looked much better in spot duty off the bench than getting beat up by bigger tackles every down. There is no depth besides a redshirted freshman named Lawrence Marsh who was a hot recruit. The interior players are a bunch of unknowns and/or unprovens - Clint McMillan (who I think is hurt), Brandon Antwine (who Meyer loves, but blew out his knee), Javier Estopinan, and Vernon Shelton (61 – I had never heard of him, but he played a bunch today, not that he did much). At linebacker one of the three new starters will be Brandon Spikes, who has been streaky. Some guy named Dustin Doe (32) started today. He was average, but otherwise I have no idea and I noticed Crum in the same situation last year and got that one right. The secondary will not be so bad unless Smith goes. Markihe Anderson (37) has looked okay at corner in stop duty. If Smith goes the Haitian Wondy Pierre-Louis (4) might be the other guy, he’s looked pretty fast on special teams. At safety I’ll guess Kyle Jackson will become a starter again – replacing Nelson, who replaced him last year. Maybe we’ll find a few freshman starters or transfers.

Sunday, November 12, 2006

Everyone always likes an exciting game so long was you win

I’m trying to keep these shorter – I’ve heard some of you are not hanging on my every word.

I had awful seats, I was both high up and at the side of the endzone so I watched the whole game at a forty-five degree angle. As a result I could barely make out any numbers, so I’ll be talking mainly about formations.

I was also watching the game with my dad, who was surprisingly popular with the coeds. The apple does not far from the tree: as anyone who has watched a game with me can tell you, I have a tendency to yell out “suggestions” to the players during the play (I do this watching the games at home too – even if I am alone…moving on…) At one point I was yelling something and realized my dad was standing next to me yelling the exact same thing. I guess I know where I learned how to watch a game. Anyway, without further adieu…

QB: Leak has never been a good runner, as has actually regressed a little – he used to be more decisive about pulling it down and running, now he keeps his head up looking to pass for too long so when he scrambles it is usually too late and the defense has closed on him. Against the ‘Cocks (boy do we ever loooove that nickname) Leak had several called runs and got some yardage because SC wasn’t looking for it. Leak isn’t fast, but he isn’t slow either, so we can get some yards that way (before he pusses out by spinning his back to the tackler every time). As for our running QB, Tim has been getting hit a lot lately because teams know he is going to run. The staff developed a brilliant play that we used twice, once on a key 4th down. They line up in shotgun with a back a step ahead of him on each side. Then one of them (I believe Eric Rutledge (29), the backup fullback) goes in motion short before the snap so that even though the defense knows he is running they can’t tell where Tebow is going and so can’t stack that point. Very clever design. Tebow played less than usual. Rumors were he would be passing more, but he only threw once – a frantic play where he never set, did a pump fake that looked more as though it was a fake spike, and threw to where the play called without reading the defense. The pass was not particularly close to the receiver – who was covered anyway. Needs work. Thankfully next week we play a 1-AA team so we can let Tebow throw some.
GRADE: B (Leak hit a few guys in stride for once, and, despite appearances, put some drives together. He also threw a pick and very easily could have had two).

RB: I did not see Kestahn Moore (33) on the field at all besides kick returns. Wynn (21) ran very well, he has some (note that word is “some,” not “lots”) speed to go with is above average (again note the phrase selected) power, but apparently no shiftiness because he broke several runs into the secondary and ran right to the last defender and just got tackled – barely even trying a move. Still Wynn had a very good game, I am at a loss as to why we did not run with him more. Latsko (42) was on the field much more than usual, and blocked well, picking up blitzers and making some holes for Wynn.
GRADE: A

WR: Early on when Percy Harvin (8) was getting a lot of public acclimation I said the Perce was better as a runner with the ball his hands than a receiver running routes. Urban apparently agreed with me as Harvin lined up as a tailback for several carries, even rather than end arounds – those went to Caldwell (5). Harvin also caught several passes on underneath routes and ran well with them (as did Caldwell) – good job of routes in combination. I didn’t see Cornelius (6) doing anything or Baker (81) do much besides one play. Ingram (7) had one big catch were he made someone miss on the sideline and ran for a while (I know he is listed as a TE, but I want to see him lineup next to the tackle at least once before I reassign him). Also I saw a receiver coming back in to the line and blocking pass rushers on several plays. Not once did the defender blow them up. Harvin nearly killed us by hitting a shotgun snap while in motion. That might actually be on the center Rissler (79) – remember Alabama. For the record Caldwell’s intentional grounding was not bad, he was going to be sacked, if there is no flag that play it saves the yardage.
GRADE: B+ (no one was spectacular, but as a unit they did well).

TE: I saw Tater Salad (number 84 in your program, number one in your heart) on the field for two plays.
GRADE: NA. (I know I seem to bust on him, but I tend to him of him as a not bad blocker, but from as high up as I was I could not see him well enough to tell when he was doing something).

OL: Last year we could pass block, but not move anyone for the run. Now we have the reverse. Meyer eventually made a nice adjustment by moving the pocket.
GRADE: B- (hey, run blocking is part of the game).

DL: Marcus Thomas (44) is gone (kicked off the team). Teams could run on us some when he was there, without him we really are in trouble. Thomas was also the one guy who could collapse the pocket from the center for us. SC was repeatedly able to gash us, and our only pass rush from the line as just occasionally from the outside, but our DEs (Moss (94) and Harvey (91)) often ran themselves out of the play upfield or just got blocked and could not hold the edges on the run. Also without Thomas, we don’t have much or a rotation, besides Moss and Harvey we mainly just used Cohen (20), Harris (93) and McDonald (95). I did not catch too many guys out there much – a five man rotation can wear down easily. A QB who hasn’t been able to hold onto his job was 24 of 33 against us, and on two plays had so much time he got antsy and ran around because his internal clock was going off even though we were nowhere near him.
GRADE: C

LB: Pretty quiet day for this unit. Siler (40) filled a hole and stopped a run short on one play (reportedly he has a bruised knee). Crumb (13) got his hand on a pass and missed a tackle. Maybe because it was because I as up high, but that was all I noticed. I saw Spikes (51) was out there, but not making plays. The whole D was off this game, I still like him.
GRADE: B- (they did not do much good, but not much noticeably bad either).

DB: Miserable. In part because we had no pressure, so their QB could pick us apart, but they missed several tackles. I’m not sure who missed on that big play to the tight end, but I saw Nelson (1) miss one another time. Lewis (22) recovered when he was beat to knock down a floater once, but also got away with a brutal pass interference (really bad refs this game; no excuse to not call a personal foul on that hit on Leak during that nonplay). Only Joiner (19) made a noticeably good play – blowing up a screen and putting the ball carrier on the ground. He has been very consistent this year. The big problem was SC was able to sit down in our zone all game – how many passes did they complete to guys who were standing stock still when they made the catch?
GRADE: C- (for as shaky as they were, both of SC’s TDs were on the ground).

ST: Clearly if the defense has an average GPA of 2.1 but we only gave up 16 points then the special teams must have made some plays. Three blocked kicks! (Ironically the internet tells me they were blocked by McDonald and Moss who did so little on defense). Usually those type of plays go against us. The also lost a chance to try a fieldgoal thanks to delay of game, so three drives did not up points when they should have. Of course so did one of ours – Hetland is now 3 of 10 and missed from 30 yards. We absolutely need a new kicker. Next week when we have the gimme 1-AA game we should try out some other guys and once we get ahead pass on TDs for threes. I know that sounds crazy, but if we are talking national championship (more on that later) we need to be able to rely on a kicker to make at least a thirty-yarder.
GRADE: A+ (Special teams has now cost us a game and saved a game for us).
Hetland: F-

Coaching: It’s well known I’m no great fan of Urban Meyer, but for all the Spurrier is god talk, Meyer coached a good game. When the passrush got to Leak, he moved the pocket, which we had not done so far this year. He drew up that play so defenses could not key on Tebow. While there was a lot of yellow on the field, more of them were on SC which was a nice change. We also only ran one misdirection play again right after it worked to watch it get blown up (traditionally a Meyer favorite). On defense we were not as impressive. Again and again we kept running the same defense – rush 4 lineman with a zone behind it – and getting beat. We mixed it up occasionally exactly the way I wanted – dropping lineman to flood the zone (we only rushed two) and blitzing (which we used to do much more of early in the season). Both of these tactics worked against their inexperienced QB for incompletions – but amazingly we then stopped using them and went back to our base, bend but don’t break defense! I understand not wanting to go against what has been working all year, but how about bringing up some linebackers to the line and then dropping them out to confuse the offense at least!? Why abandon what works (which they also did by not running Wynn more)?
GRADE: A-

Football 101: “Moving the quarterback” is when after the snap the quarterback rolls to one side, often the offense line drifts the same direction (as the Gators did). By moving the pocket the defense has to read and react so they can’t just tee off on the pass rush knowing where the QB will be (so they will be a step slower, giving the QB has more time). The defensive end away from where the QB rolls has a long journey to the sack while the other defensive end gets doubled by the offensive tackle and guard.

Play of the Game: Baker’s TD. Leak threw a duck into coverage that should have been a pick, but Baker made a great adjustment and went to fight for the ball getting us a TD in a game in which points were hard to come by (800+ combined yards of offense, 50+ combined first downs, but only 33 combined points!?).

Player of the Game: Ryan Suck-up (sp?). No one was really great and I reject the concept of just naming someone to name someone but Jarvis Moss did block the PAT and that last field goal (which I learned from the internet) so he gets the gold star next to his name this week. Wynn had the best individual game for a Gator, but you don’t get player of the game on 12 carries.

Fans: I will give credit. I have accused the fans of largely being ignorant, but when SC was on their last drive I have never heard the Swamp louder. It was a notch louder than any point earlier in the game – which means everyone knew it was all on the line at that point.
GRADE: A+ (and this despite hearing some “Leak for Heisman” chants after Tebow made a nice play).

Bottom Line: Okay with only a 1-AA team and FSU on the schedule it is time to start talking national championship. Assuming we are half as good as Wake Forest we can beat FSU 15-0 (yes I watched that game to the bloody end to enjoy the shutout). Thanks to Georgia we know barring a miracle we will face Arkansas (thanks to KSU for clipping Texas too). That is no gimme. They were a tough running team with a solid defense. We’d be favored, but it would not be a shock to lose. Assuming we win out, we would be 12-1. OSU or Michigan will be undefeated, the other will have one loss. USC or Notre Dame will have also have one loss (they play one another) and Rutgers will be undefeated. As much I would love to see Rutgers play for the national championship so popular sentiment would finally kill the BCS it is going to be the Big Ten champ vs. a one loss team. While I would say if Michigan loses close they should go, in college football losing late in the season really hurts you (and I do remember Oklahoma). So the pick will probably be either us or the winner of USC-Notre Dame. Who really knows how the BCS works, but at this point I have to say we have a realistic chance. Now in a game against OSU or Michigan I think we’ll get smacked, but we have the phrase “any given Sunday” (Saturday) for a reason. And I’d like that shot (and a ticket) even if I don’t expect a W.