Gator Knowledge

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Goodbye Mr. Two Bits

There is no good way to do an analysis of a 63-5 drubbing, nor much a reason too. So I’ll do a brief break down of a few points of the game. For the record I am surprised to be doing this – Kentucky was 5-2 coming in with a well ranked defense, but they had a bunch of guys on both sides of the ball out hurt. They only lost by 3 in Tuscaloosa (although their best win was against Arkansas).

First off I am glad to see that Ryan Stamper (41) appears to have supplanted Dustin Doe (32) as a starting linebacker, Doe wasn’t hurt, he played once the game was over. Markie Anderson (14) seems to be our nickel over the Wondy Wonder (4), but when SEC freshman of the year Janoris Jenkins (29) left the field, Wondy seemed to play more. Is Markie still semi-hurt? Two years ago he looked as though he had potential in spot duty as a freshman (as #37), and I kept hoping to see him when everyone passed on us last season, but he has never been the same since blowing out his knee the summer after his first year. I hope Jenkins is healthy next week or our secondary is in trouble. Guard Mike Pouncey (55) also left with a hurt back (or maybe it was Maurice #56) but was feeling well enough to fake conduct the band at the end of the game rally. On the positive side Harvin only touched the ball three times, so should be fresh [see how cool a Gator Fantasy League would be?] Tebow’s pick was pretty bad, it was slow moving ball which allowed the defender to break on it and get in front of the receiver. Anyway clearly special teams were the key to this one getting out of hand early. With that and the always dangerous Brandon James we have a real advantage there when we go to Jacksonville – sort of a sneaky advantage that can pop up unexpectedly be a big help in games (not that I like everything – why was Markie Anderson was about 20 yards deep on a punt when James was in his normal spot? Then he ran forward as though was going to block a punt. Other than taking him out of the play, what purpose does that serve?). We still struggle to get passrush and contain running quarterbacks – thankfully Stafford isn’t one of those.

Sorry for the short write up this week, but you’ll get one next week because I have tickets to Georgia.

Finally did you know Kentucky’s mascot is called “Scratch?” Weak.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

B***CS*** ranking are out

The Gators were off this week, but I’ll comment on the first BCS poll that just came out. UF is tenth - mildly surprising that we are 5th in the AP. However it may not be as hard for us to move up as you might suspect:

*4 of those 9 teams are in the Big 12. Several off them are yet to play one another. More importantly if we win out, only one of those teams can be ahead of us as only one will have a chance to not lose any more games (the best two will be in the conference championship.

*Penn State and OSU play one another, so one of them will drop. Hopefully Penn State, because it would be impossible to catch an undefeated team and the pollsters might conspire against OSU getting a third shot.

*Georgia and Bama are ahead of them, but if we win out we will have beaten both (or someone else will have beaten Bama before the SEC championship.

*The only team ahead of us who won’t have to face another team in the top 10? USC. They don’t even play another ranked team, thanks to the defense free Pac-10. How many losses would they have if they played in the SEC? I’d complain more, but the whole BCS system is a feeble excuse for dodging a real playoff.

So we have a shot. I’m not saying we are going 13-1 and playing for the championship again (a BCS bowl does seem realistic, if far from a lock) – but we do control our own destiny.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

Louisiana Staples University - well that was easy

I will begin with a mea culpa. Before the game I felt LSU was a slight favorite, but that neither team was going to blow out the other. I was not worried abut us getting killed because I knew the Tiger D was not that good: they gave up 21 to Auburn (plus I think very little of Les Miles). As it turned out, it was their biggest loss since 2002 and the first time since 1996 they gave up 50 (that was also in Gainesville, our first championship year). LSU just does not usually get handled that way.

QB: It was a pretty easy game for The Savior, but not really a spectacular one. He was off on a few of his passes were a little off (that 70 yard TD was Harvin catching a so-so throw). He is still a work in progress; he is not great at reading defenses (but he is better) or realizing when the pocket is breaking down and he should run. He is still an athlete playing QB, as that atrocious fumble when he wandered around in the pocket for half an hour before someone hit him showed. Also, teams are used to him running and have gotten affective at containing him (in four SEC games he has averaged 2.2, 0.5, 2.7, and 1.8 yards a carry. I now some of that is sacks). We need to give up running him so much and work in a new wrinkle.
GRADE: A- (you know what’s funny? I initially give him a B+ because I was thinking he did not have an A game, stupid UF grading system)

RB: They got a slow start, but when the LSU defense got tired we started finding holes (the Tiger O was barely on the field in the first quarter). In the second quarter there was an adjustment as we started running Rainey (3) and Demps (2) on wide runs. Once they got out in space their moves got them even more yards. Later on after getting the Tigers even more tired we found some yardage inside too. You know they were good because Harvin (1) only had 2 carries
GRADE: B+

WR: We need to find another receiver besides Harvin (my kingdom for Cornelius Ingram). Take away his 6 catches for 112 yards and 2 TDs and they had less than 100 yards. No one had more than two catches. That is not good given how often Harvin has been dinged. My new favorite Deonte Thompson (6) had 2 catches and at least one other pass I saw go towards him, so I am hoping they are working him. The Juco Moore (16) was shut out.
GRADE: B (this game was won on the ground)

TE: Hernandez had two catches for five yards. One was a shovel pass where he knocked out of the game for a while. Tater Salad (#84 in your program, #1 in your heart. This is now a hot key on my computer by they way) played a fair amount (I was in the 8th row endzone, so it was much easier to see the personal we had on the field). He plays some son special teams and come into block.
GRADE: C+

OL: For as bad as they were last week, they were that good this time around. The big bad LSU defense gave up 265 yards on the ground, and looked the best we have all year doing it. Tebow had plenty of time. Jim Tartt (63) and his back up Marcus Gilbert (76) were still out hurt, but Carl Johnson (57) apparently was the glue. Just to give props: inside he worked with Mike and Maurkice Pouncey (55 and 56) while Phil Trautwein (75) and Jason Watkins (77) manned the tackle spots.
GRADE: A+ (as I tell my students, improvement matters. Yes, I know we did less five wide, but they did well)

DL: First of all, Carlos Dunlop (8) who was much hyped during the offseason, is not a starter. He plays some, often lining up in several spots, even upright off the line sometimes. Sophomore Justin Trattou (94) has replaced him (Dunlop is also a sophomore – and much bigger). They were solid against the run, but got no pass rush (Jarrett Lee was 23 of 38). And we definitely still need to work on keeping containment against running QBs.
GRADE: B

LB: I finally got the lineup I wanted, Stamper (41) and Jones (16) outside of Spikes (51). Stamper actually did not do that much, but I would rather see him get a shot again. The undersized A.J. Jones, really a coverage specialist blew up their running back (leading runner in the SEC on Friday) in the hole early, almost flipping him. Brandon Hicks (40) has been playing some because of injuries and as he gets more experience he has been getting better. However the best game was obviously turned in by Spikes – two interceptions and a TD will do that. By the way on pick-6, Spikes made a great play coming across from a distance to jump in front of the pass – but if you watch the play, behind the pick two Gators blew up the intended receiver anyway. There was no way, even if Spikes did nothing, that pass was complete – that is good defense/bad throw.
GRADE: A

DB: Lee completed 60% of his passes, but had 6 yards an attempt (Tebow had 10). That’s not a misleading stat. They completed many passes, and nickel and dimed us down the field on their drives, but there was no major break down in coverage. The tackling was great too, receivers were going down, not running for big yardage. They were led by Janoris Jenkins (29), who I am already going to declare is the SEC Freshman of the year. He’s a great tackler and had a pass defense or two – he may be our #1 cover corner soon, although Joe Haden (5) is no slouch. It is tough to put enough drives together to win in a high scoring game without some big plays.
GRADE: A-

ST: Their speedster Trindon Holiday (8) cut some big returns against us. For a while I used to complain about our kickoff coverage because it only covers from the sideling to hash marks – leaving a corridor open for a Music City Miracle play. No one has ever tried, but some returners have gotten over there for big returns. Holiday – arguably the fastest man in the NCAAs – got over their twice. So we need to watch for speed guys if not everyone over there. Brandon James had his usually couple of game changers, despite their punter either trying to not give him a chance to return or just hitting several bad ones – we’ve really gotten very complacent about how good James is.
GRADE: B+

Football 101: This week’s term doesn’t stem from the LSU game, but last week’s SMU-UCF game (check the archive). The are many different phrases that people drop that mean the same thing as “changing field position.” Battle for position, flip the field, there are more terms for this than I can think of. Changing field position is not something you should in theory be striving for, because it means you haven’t scored on your drive and instead are punting. You can think of it as a consolation prize, maybe you didn’t score, but got some first downs and drove a little bit and when you punt the other team they will get the ball farther from your endzone than they had before. Hopefully if you defense holds you’ll get the ball in better field position next drive. Usually no team goes into a game planning to be working to change field position, but it will happen in close games where neither team is able to move the ball well (either because of great defense, bad offense, conservative coaching, or a mixture of those). For casual fans it is not scintillating to watch, but it is a key way to win tight games. Good coaches know how to do this and win games. Maybe on 3 and 15 you throw for 12 yards on the grounds that the defense will probably willing give that up to you because you’ll still punt (this is also a common tactic to get into field goal range). What teams really want to avoid is constantly being stuck deep in their own end, because that means the other team is constantly just outside scoring position which puts a ton of pressure on your defense. And no defense can hold for ever so eventually the other team scores, which is big in a tight game (more problematic is they usually score because the defense is tired which means the offense might start to be able to move through them and break the game open). The best example I can give you is Super Bowl XXXVIII where early in the game the Panthers offense could not change field position to save its life and the Pats spend the whole first quarter on Carolina’s 40. The Panthers D held up great, but it drained them (they were on the field for 39 out of 60 minutes of game time) and New England was able to move the ball on them late.

Player of the Game: Not Brandon Spikes, who you would expect. I might even put Jenkins ahead of him. But the real “player” of the game was the OL. On our first pass some redneck next to me complained because Tebow’s throw was off. I came back by pointing out he had had plenty of time, which was more important given how the OL had played against Ole Miss. They held up. If they had played the way the had last time they were here we would have lost this game, but everything stems from the OL. In the third quarter most of our plays were run as we pushed them around and gassed their defense. After that the game was over. It has been a few years since I have seen a Gator team just run it down a defense’s throat.

Play of the Game: Louis Murphy’s 37 yard catch. We had gotten ahead 20-0 and then given up a quick TD at the end of the first half and then other after halftime. That play was a big play we needed when everyone was concerned we had let another team back into a game and may lose. After we went up 27-14 it was clear our offense wasn’t going to disappear again.

Bottom Line: The next day we are #5 and clearly can beat anyone. Georgia struggled with TN at home a little (and the Volunteers were using their #2 QB). If (and that is definitely an “if”) things break our way we can win the SEC and from there anything, even another title is a possibility. I don’t think we are a good as that, but you do have to recognize it as a realistic possibility.

Sunday, October 05, 2008

Gator Knowledge expands its coverage

First of all, if you actually watched the game, rather than the 38-7 final score, you would realize we struggled with Arkansas quite a bit before wearing them down. We have problems: LSU will be a game.

But I am not hear to review the Gators; I do not believe TV angles show you enough. But I did attend a game. I drove 2 hours south to see the University of Central Florida play Southern Methodist University.

I have seen the other side of the mountain and it is bad. I will not say it was high school level, but you forget how many bad Division I teams there are because with 117 teams there are always good games on. SMU has a few quick ball carriers (RB and WRs), but their run-n-shoot offense produced about 2 yards after the catch (more on that later).

UCF analysis: We will keep this brief because I know I am the only one this crazy.

UCF’s offense is pretty solid on the ground. They lost their stud “24K” (Props: good nickname), Kevin Smith who almost set the NCAA single season rushing record last year, but walk-on freshman Ronnie Weaver (35) did well. He is good a dodging tacklers, but has some speed and power too. The OL was not great, but moved the Mustang’s DL and gave their QBs time on the few occasions (17) they passed. The receivers showed me nothing, but supposedly their best two are banged up.

Of course for any team you have to analyze their quarterbacks. UCF is have an alleged controversy between nominal starter junior Michael Greco (2) and true freshman Rob Calabrese (4) (from Long Island, same school as Boomer Esiason. Who but Gator Knowledge gives you that level of insight?). Calabrese is the fan favorite, at least I guess I think so. He started the game because Greco was supposedly hurt, but then the junior played the whole second half. Greco a better runner; Calabrese looks tentative as a runner, even on called runs. Greco has an awkward throwing motion. I am unable to describe it, but his torso jerks forward. On the other hand his passes flew better. It is tough to judge though because all off Calabrese’s throws where short (he was 5 of 9 for 32 yards) while Greco aired it out off play action. I dunno, you be the judge.

The defense was better than their offense. They got 4 turnovers, 4 sacks, and rebounded well from a tough start (they were on the field for 12 minutes in the first quarter and fell behind 10-3. Oh by the way UCF won 31-17 and generally were in charge as much as anyone was for most of this listless game). None of this was thanks to their linebackers who did nothing. I did not notice them at all; looking at their online roster I am unable even remember who was out there. Their DL was better, getting a little pressure and not really letting SMU get any running lanes. They were also the only guys on the whole team to interact with the fans. DE Jarvis Geathers (99) was their best guy, but I do not think he starts (internet says he is 215lbs). They have a pair of good DTs in Torrell Troup (98) and Travis Timmons (95) who are wide run stoppers, but got some penetration on passing downs too. The secondary is solid, but not spectacular. They are as a whole good tacklers and made a few good plays on passes (I remember thinking 35 was good, but ESPN has no 35 on their roster). On one play their safety bit on a short route and gave up a 94 yard bomb which brought SMU back into the game in the 4th.

UCF’s best player is their punter (remember the name Blake Clingan (41) on Sundays in a few years) , and he really is great – everyone was huge high. In general their special teams are good. Especially on punt returns, which was the only time there was any buzz in the stands. CB Joe Burnett (19) broke a few nice returns and I gather that is expected. He is a hell of a risk taker though.

In terms of coaching they were uninspired. There was very little variety to their play calling. I do not think they blitzed even once (and early on especially their QB had time). On offense they just ran Weaver all the time (he carried on about 45% of their plays. Literally 45%). Quite simply I think they do not trust their talent and so play conservative so their defense can carry them. This is not popular. To give them credit they stayed with the run until it worked, rode it for a while, and then passed a bit when the defense was tired and not ready for it (which worked well). And they rolled the dice going for it on fourth and short deep in SMU territory when only up by seven late in the third quarter (good defenses let you do that)

The Golden Knights’ fans are led by their mascot. His name: Knightro. I could not make that up. Perhaps because of that the fans act as though they are watching American Gladiators. I have no affiliation with UCF, but I was the loudest cheerer. Often I was the only one. Even on third downs when they were holding on to a slim lead it was quite. I heard many excuses about lack of tradition, how bad the team was (this win got them to 2-3) especially compared to last year, that it was a listless crowd for a minor game and they are louder at other times (maybe in games where they fill up more than 70% of seats even though the local paper says less than a thousand tickets went unsold), but bottom line is they are not good fans. I got no sense they realized a vocal crowd can pump its team. There are also some pretty unrealistic expectations. They won Conference USA last year FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER (only won a division for the first time in 2005), but now, with a bunch of seniors gone, they are struggling. They are not in a BCS conference. It takes time: in the last three years they have been to their only two bowls (been Division I since 1996) and they went winless are recently as 2004. There is only a certainly level they are going to get to anytime soon. Admittedly I was opposite the student section, but that was pretty empty and pretty quiet. A student told me he was yelled at in the student section for NOT yelling on offense to support the team. Good thing that was not me. Maybe they were inspired by the band, which sent their horns in little groups (tubas, trombones, etc) around the stadium with cheerleaders and rally captains to play for sections to get them cheering when they had the ball. My kingdom for one football savvy band director.

I don’t want to imply they aren’t trying. They played the ultimate sports pump song – which I learned is called “Zombie Nation” (or possibly Kernkraft 400) – at least half a dozen times (which is a good way to make it not feel special at all). They also have this cute little back and forth chant: “Gold” and “Black.” Whenever they get a first down the announcer comes on and says something to the equivalent of “that pass was good for six yards, good for a UCF first down” and everyone says “first down!” along with him and makes the first down motion in the direction the team is driving (hey – coordination!). It sure is cunning: reminds me of smiles, sunshine, and little puppies. The bitter student fan I was sitting with explained they have this celebration because for them a first down is as important as a TD is for UF (last time I saw people so excited for a first down was at a Baltimore Ravens game during the Kyle Boller years). When they kickoff the crowd chats “U! C! F! Knights!” which I admit isn’t bad (as an aside – why do we say “woosh?”). Easily their best technique is playing a somber church bell ring three times before third down to try to start some noise.

The stadium is nothing special. It is smaller than UF and prices are cheaper. The lower bowl is fenced off from the upper bowl; I am not a fan of segregating fans. The one advantage they have is that the stands are aluminum, not concrete, thus when you stomp your feet it reverberates in a big way. The stadium is ready to be deafening if some real fans ever so up.

I will give some credit: UCF’s campus is nicer than ours. They have less concrete block bunkers from the seventies. It just seems more modern. It also is more corporate; they have actually made of those little faux villages on their campus. Spitting distance from the stadium is basically the Haile Plantation village center (with apartments).