Gator Knowledge

Saturday, October 24, 2009

Mississippi State

We are getting worse, not better. The offense is too reliant on Tim Tebow. Not only is that bad because everyone knows it and plays him, it also simply isn't a good offense - dynamic offenses don't run their QB up the middle twenty times a game. Plus has the potential to wear him down. Worse yet its starting to get into Tebow's head. As games are getting tighter he is starting to feel more and more that he has to do everything - I've never seen him pressing so much, holding onto the ball too long thinking he can use his athleticism to get out of trouble and make a play when he should just pitch it away. But it is blowing up our faces too much for horrible yardage lost sacks (and the occasional turnover). We need to develop other weapons.

Besides being too reliant on Tebow it is also too predictable. Tebow's rushing average has been dropping because everyone can key on him. But Meyer has been trying to expand our offensive repertoire. We tried to pass more vs Arkansas and used some fullbacks tonight - although we did it from the shotgun with no other RBs so it was clear it would be a Tebow run; notice how well having Tebow under center in the "I" worked. We just have to be careful not to screw around too much. We want to mix in some new plays, but it is dangerous to fundamentally change our offense midseason. Plus the personal, especially the OL, is clearly better suited for the run.

In truth the the defense is going to have to carry us, they are the much better unit (especially if they can finally get healthy). Notice they solved that running problem (and gave up just 6 points to the offense). I actually prefer defense first teams (but the offense has to be able to throw so they can score quickly and get back into a game because almost no defense can be perfect all year) as they win more the offensive teams (we were balanced last year), but it makes for closer, tenser, games. Also on a defensive team the offense needs to focus even more on avoiding turnovers - don't throw crazy passes and get picks, punting the better option than getting a few deep passes but also the occasional interception.

And Dustin Doe is a moron. (By the way ESPN's horrible telecast never IDed who tipped the pass - it was Brandon Hicks (40)).

Friday, October 23, 2009

I got a question...

Q: Why doesn't Meyer adjust to formations with more blockers and fewer WRs; if he admits this is a running team this year, why keep running the shotgun spread?

A: The reason we don't bring in more blockers and power run is 1) Meyer's hubris 2) Demps and Rainey aren't power runners, so it is easier for them to run against defenses spread out against four wide 3) We don't have blockers - unless you mean backup lineman (and the OL is beatup). We have exactly one TE on the roster (and he is the key to the passing game) and one or two fullbacks who are young and have never played. Meyer recruited guys who fit the spread and now we just don't have the personal to switch up the offense. Why we couldn't have spent one scholarship on a blocking fullback goes back to # 1.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Pick your own pun about going Hog Wild

I know that I am late with this, but I was really behind in my work after wining and dining the refs all last Friday. Anyway you get what you pay for. And lest you think about looking to someone else read this:

http://gatorknowledge.blogspot.com/2009/07/just-want-to-say-this-now.html

I a little less worried as we got closer because Arkansas's defense was playing poorly and because after they killed Auburn while we only put up 13 in Baton Rouge I hoped we would be less likely to be looking past this game.

Anyway the point is I may be a nut, but I know football. Speaking of being a nut if anyone has any UGA tickets for sale or knows of some please let me know. Especially ones owned by people willing to trade for an FSU ticket.

Also the Thursday before the game I went to see two of Gainesville's three high schools go head-to-head. It was a great time - although the stadium is a concrete hellhole and you might want to bring a seat cushion. Give that all three schools share it as a home field it is not much of a stadium. Anyway I am planning to go back for another game or two. Tickets are $7 - I plan to get there around 7:00

This Friday (October 23) is Eastside's Senior night. They are not very good this year though.

Nov. 6 Gainesville High currently 7-1 with two guys going to Miami next year has homecoming. Buchholz High also plays that night. They are poor, but played Gainesville tough.

Also if you want to actually PLAY football there are (USUALLY - contact me) pickup games Friday night (5:00) at Maguire Field and Saturday morning (10:00ish) at the school at NW 8th Ave and 10th Street. Both games could use more bodies. They are coed friendly games, talent optional, and only one guy has blown out his knee so far (man I am getting old)

Anyway on with the show...

QB: Much the same way that happened with Chris Leak over time people are seeing the weaknesses in The Savior (15) that I have been commenting on the whole time. He does not have great pocket presence, is not a good scrambler (which is different from being a runner), is not the best at reading defenses, and often makes poor decisions trying to use his athletic ability to save plays when he should just throw it away. Nothing quite the same as a six sack game expose a fellow. But (again similar to Leak) the pendulum has swung too far the other way. Tim Tebow is a damn fine college QB. He isn't my favorite type of QB, and won't be an NFL success, but let us keep in mind he runs a ton and, especially this year, carries our offense. In three years off starting he has just 12 interceptions and if we run a gimmick offense he runs is well. His fumble this week was because the blindside DE got there quickly. His passes were not off target. He ran hard (admittedly not for a ton of yardage, but that is because no one is ever surprised to see Tebow up the middle anymore). Yes he took some terrible sacks, but he threw for decent yardage and moved the offense when we needed it most.
GRADE: B (bad sacks, doing what you are expected too, and no great plays is not an "A")

RB: I still like Rainey (3) more, but Demps (2) had the better game although that was in part because he got more of the outside runs. Why we use Rainey inside so much more than Moody (21) is not clear. I'm not a huge Moody fan, but he's been doing well lately and no one else found yardage inside so why not give him a shot? Also going back to Tebow I will point out that our three running backs combined for 18 carries - or nine less than our quarterback.
GRADE: C+ Demps was the only one to do anything - and combined they averaged 3.7 yards a carry.

WR: They simply aren't that good. I was wrong about Deonte Thompson (6), maybe he will step it up next season. I know he had the big catch, but that was a blown coverage, he is not getting open on any kind of regular basis. Maybe his hamstring is still slowing him down. Riley Cooper (11) is best of a bad bunch. He can't break away from guys on a regular basis, has poor hands (a great catch late won't make me forget about his two big drops - or previous ones), and doesn't jump much for as tall as he is. Really I think he gets most of the catches because he is Timmy's roommate. Brandon James (25) and David Nelson (83) were nonexistent this game - and combined have just 15 catches this season. The corps is a liability and unless Meyer starts playing the kids probably will remain so. Carl Moore (13) is probably not playing this season.
GRADE: C- (9 catches for 149 yards - half on one blown coverage)

TE: Hernandez (81) is by far and away our best pass catcher. This week he did a great job keeping his feet inbounds on a key first down pickup. You can get away with your tight end being you primary receiving weapon, but not in a spread offense. Now our best receiver is often in close to the line to block. We don't have another tight end or a fullback (or at least one Meyer trusts - haven't seen TJ Pridemore (45) since Troy) so he has to stay in sometimes. But the fact remains he is our best receiver, maybe - god forbid - we should adjust the almighty spread a bit to reflect the talents and shortcomings of our players - that sure worked in 2006. There might also be a lesson here about the need to recruit something besides little speed guys.
GRADE: A

OL: They got dominated, plain a simple. There were not many running lanes, and not all of those six sacks were Tebow's fault. And the Arkansas defense isn't that great. The line had been pretty good until this week, so I am not sure what went wrong. I wonder if with all the talk about how great we could run and how little we pass Arkansas played up rather than worry as much about Timmy’s arm. Hopefully like everyone else they just had an anomaly off game.
GRADE: D+

DL: Holy cow when is Lawrence Marsh (90) going to be healthy!? I knew he was our best lineman, but the run defense just falls apart without him. Jaye Howard (6) isn't great, but we missed him too. And our DEs aren't picking up the slack on the line. Dunlap (8) hasn't progressed from where he finished last year and Cunningham (49) has never been as good as the hype. We are getting thin with all the injuries too. Duke Lemmens (44) who has barely been playing was lined up on the inside of the line in crunchtime. Maybe we can flip an offensive lineman over the way we did with a Pouncey in '07? Oh wait, the OL is beatup too - surely we have some backup doing nothing - at least they will be a big body. I do what to temper my criticism with some appreciation for Justin Trattou (64). Last year nobody noticed, but while the videoscreen kept claiming Dunlap was starting Trattou was our really starting DE. And he made some plays - I remember him chasing Bradford out of the pocket a couple of times. This season he has only gotten better. He's not that big, but has been playing inside for our three lineman "Joker" nickel package. He can hold his own - I definitely saw him fight off a blocker (with technique) and make a great stop on the inside. Maybe if we are real thin at DT we can use him there in a 4-3. The problem is that he is one of just three DEs we use - I don't want to see him worn out or hurt. It is going to take some creative scheming for the next few weeks until Marsh is healthy.
GRADE: B- (yes some nobody put up a hundred yards, but the defense as a whole kept us in the game despite four fumbles. Plus they got some pressure on Mallet).

LB: Speaking of injuries, the Razorbacks found much more running room after Spikes (51) was injured. Great players alone don't make a great team - you need good coaching/scheme too, but without players any scheme can be exposed. Spikes has been dinged quite a bit this year, it’s too bad especially since we finally started using him as a rush DE at LSU. Even without him the linebackers played pretty well. AJ Jones (16) got a big hit to pump up the defense early, Dustin Doe (32) made a great play on a screen to break it, and Ryan Stamper (41) continues to be a very heady player. It's funny how much confidence I have in him now - he may not make many highlight reel plays to get noticed, but he is always in position. Several times he was alone on the outside when Arkansas passed and he always read the play correctly. Meyer has already reported talked to him about becoming a coach next year. Brandon Hicks (40) did get a stupid penalty, but I still think he is good and am not worried about him starting next year.
GRADE: A- (too many yards given up on the ground late. I think having to hold the Hogs so many times after turnovers wore us out - mental as well as physically)

DB: Joe Haden (5) once again got beat a few times, but only for short yardage. He isn't the tightest in coverage and will give up some catches. But they are usually not big gainers as he closes and tackles. Janoris Jenkins (1) has been the better corner, but he got burned on the big TD in the fourth quarter. That is the first time I have ever seen him burned, but the truth is no matter how good you are at any position you are going to get beat some plays. I could look the other way, save he was beat for another big pass earlier (I am pretty sure it was him the WR was wide open between Jenkins short and a safety deep, but he was looking back at the QB not running after the WR so it might have been a bad zone). My man just had a bad game. He also had a chance for a pick when he was in better position than the receiver on a first quarter throw, but I think the pass was lost in the sun because both he and the WR acted as though the ball was several feet to right of where it really was. I have less to say about our safeties because they were pretty quite. Will Hill (10) is regularly getting time now. Ahmad Black (35) played closer to the line than he normally does. He's small, but I like mixing our formations up - although I like the idea of Major Wright alone back in coverage much less. Black is great against pass, but the hard-hitting Wright is a liability. If Black is going to be up I would much rather have Hill back.
GRADE: A- (Yes there was the 75 play, but their QB, Ryan Mallet, is talented and only ended up 12/27 (and just 149 yards on those other 11 throws). Plus when they started running on us, we always made a tackle eventually rather than giving up a TD run - I can appreciate a good tackling secondary)

ST: I've had season tickets for four seasons, and missed one home game in that time (and been to two bowls games as well). So while Caleb Sturgis (19) did miss his second fieldgoal in as many weeks, I'm mainly focused on the fact he hit a 50 yarder. That is the first time I have ever felt our kicker was a legitimate weapon - and that kick did not just trickle over the crossbar either. Don't be as excited that he made the last second kick, it was just 27 yards and the game was tied then so it was not super pressure moment. But hopefully that will help the young kicker build his confidence for a tighter spot later. Given how uneven we have been it is a nice offensive option to suddenly find - but we don't know how reliable Sturgis will yet prove to be. I also want to take a moment away from our kicker to say our punter, Chaz Henry (17) has been consistently great and will be playing in the NFL someday. James was average returning ball, something we have been seeing more and more.
GRADE: A

Coaching: All the talk the week before was about how we are not great passing. But too many pundits took Meyer's BS line about it not being a problem (because we are great running team) at face value. That helps, but if you don't pass you can't suddenly just turn it on. And teams need to be able to pass - that is how you get back into games if you are behind. You can win without it if you have a great defense - the Ravens proved that, but it damn hard path to trod. Thankfully Meyer is no fool and we came out passing much more than usual to try to get some of the rust off. Now it did not really work that well, but we made some progress. Best of all we did not go totally away from it when the game got tight (that might have been in part because of now many yards we were not running for). Meyer clearly planned to right his offense against a bad team and it would have been fine if we hadn't fumbled four times. Which reminds me: someone needs to tell our guys JUST FALL ON THE BALL. We should have had three fumbles. On the bad exchange between Tebow and James, the running back could have fallen on it if he had not tried to pick it up and make a play. These guys have to learn when to accept that a play as gone bad, cut your loses and live for another day. Frustratingly in traffic on defense one of our guys (could not see who in the wash) did the same thing, giving the Hogs a chance to get their fumble back. Losing the turnover battle 3-1 rather than 4-0 could have made that game much more comfortable.
GRADE: A- (No mistakes, but not an amazing gameplan - can't really blame him for the fumbles)

Player of the Game: Aaron Hernandez. Yes he had the fumble (only the second one I ever remember him making), but he also kept drives alive. He was absolutely central to our passing attack (about 40% of the yards). If Tater Salad (#84 in your program, #1 in your heart) was still our only TE we lose this game no questions asked.

The bottom line: We are undefeated halfway through the season. This week we go Mississippi State, no worries Mullen or no because after Arkansas I guarantee Meyer has had them working hard in practice. Then we are home for Vandy, they suck. Georgia can beat us, but their defense is suspect (of that is what I thought about Arkansas). The real test will be in Columbia. The Gamecocks are the best team left on our schedule. We are better than them and I am not wildly impressed with their QB, but if we lose it is probably there. Then it’s easy - home for FIU and FSU. Bowden may be a dead man walking by then, but the bad news is if we have lost a game they won't be ranked so they won't be able to help us rebound. Then comes the presumed showdown with Bama. They look good, but I have seen them on TV twice and quarterback is not a world beater. Everyone knows their own warts the best and that is certainly the case with UF. But it is too easy to focus on the negative and not see that this is a great team with a really good (college) quarterback. This was a bad game, yes it exposed some holes, but we are better than we were on Saturday. Even great teams have bad games once in a while. Let's hope a close win can serve as much of a wakeup call as a loss can (I have my doubts). The next few weeks will tell us if this is a championship caliber team. I think it is very possible we are, but I won't be totally surprised if we fall sort. Also our luck is running out. Last year we did not have many injuries, that won't hold true forever. If things linger for Spikes and Marsh we will have trouble. And we are very thin at spots too (OL, TE).